The year 2008 is bound to leave an indelible mark on the history of real estate in Macao. When many a developer was still submerged in the glamorous profits reaped in ‘heady’ 2007, a ‘tremendous change’ befell the market in 2008. Where is the property market heading in 2009?
2008 Property Market Review
On the threshold of Lunar New Year 2008, two residential plots of land in Far Chee Kee were sold at 10-fold and nearly 9-fold prices, respectively, which immediately spurred property prices in the district by another 5%-10%. Many owners even put their property for sale on hold or entertained no negotiation on price during the Chinese Spring Festival. The government offered several favourable incentives such as property tax relief policies, and the expected Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge project was officially decided upon, while interest rates were continuously cut to counter rising inflation. These factors attracted throngs of investors to the property market, who sought to buy Macao properties to hedge against asset losses. Such bullish incentives and a booming gaming sector injected Macao’s property market with unprecedented fever, with dealers estimating that property transaction numbers and values would rise by an average of 15% in 2008.
Macao Property Market Rides Financial Tsunami
As fate would have it, dramatic changes always occur when it seems most unlikely. By mid-September 2008, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest US investment bank, announced bankruptcy, which was as good as dropping a bomb on the global financial market and resulted in a ‘financial tsunami’ that engulfed the globe. No market was left intact, be it stock, bond or real estate, without exception.
As a result, US stocks plunged 504 points, its steepest drop since 2001. Asian stocks in Japan and Hong Kong also suffered their biggest plunge in 2008 as evidence mounted that the global economy was sliding into depression. Wong Chun-lam, Executive Director of Ricacorp (Macau) Properties Ltd, points out that Macao is always affected by the global economy and is closely influenced by the Hong Kong stock market since equity funds can flow into the property market at any time. It was the ‘financial tsunami’ that dragged Macao’s economy down this time, and the property market in particular.
Transaction numbers and turnover fall in tandem in October
Wong says in his summary of Macao’s property market in 2008 that the number of property transactions in the first quarter of 2008 was slightly less than that of the last quarter of 2007 but with a higher turnover. By the second quarter, the number of transactions shrank slightly due to global bearish sentiment plus policy measures taken to curb the gaming sector and individual visitors from the Mainland. Property prices, however, did not fall by much. Thereafter, both the turnover and number of transactions in the property market went sideways. Macao’s property market was not depressed until the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. In October, the number of property transactions hit bottom, recording just 300 sales for the month.
According to government statistics, some 21,628 property transactions occurred in 2007. By October 2008, that number had fallen to 11,424 at an estimated 12,000 transactions for the whole year, a drop of more than 40% compared to the previous year. In terms of business value, property transactions in 2007 amounted to MOP42 billion. By the third quarter of 2008 that number had dropped to MOP26 billion. It is estimated that volume will fall by more than 30%, while price per square foot is also estimated to decline by 30%.
Wong points out that many property buyers are foreign investors, of which nearly 20% are from Hong Kong. During the ‘financial tsunami’ many of them lost money in the stock market and were eager to sell their property to cover their losses, which in turn resulted in the steep decline of property prices. In addition, gaming operators are beginning to cut wages and lay off workers, further dampening market mood. All of these factors made Macao’s property market fall steeper than surrounding regions; Hong Kong’s property market, for example, has fallen by about 30% while Macao’s has dived by more than 40%. Property projects still under construction are under the most pressure, suffering a fall of some 50%.
Prices are nearing the bottom, with limited room for further cuts
According to unofficial statistics, half of property purchasers were investors before the ‘financial tsunami’. Currently, 80% are homebuyers while investors account for just 20%. Wong Chun-lam thinks that with first-hand transaction prices having fallen to that of late 2005 and early 2006, it is apparent that prices are down to a reasonable level. However, Macao’s economic landscape has changed, with new players such as Wynn, Crown and The Venetian active in the territory. The panic of October and November in the wake of the ‘financial tsunami’ has subsided, and prices are nearing the bottom, with limited room for further cuts. Besides, affected by the sub-prime crisis and resulting financial fallout from the US, investors have less confidence even if they still make profits in the financial market. Currently, interest rates on bank deposits have fallen to practically zero, and buying foreign currency means risking devaluation. Consequently, investing in the property market is a better choice, since at least it will ensure 2% to 3% rental return, while the property itself may go up in price. Investors, he maintains, are more likely to enter the property market in 2009.
He expects transactions will pick up when the government implements its 4% home buying interest subsidy, and the reduction or exemption of property transfer tax. To celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Macao SAR in 2009, he adds, the Central Government may issue a series of favourable measures, which would stimulate the property market; thus, the outlook for the property market in 2009 is optimistic.
Without positive news, high-end property prices may fall further
Chong Sio Kin, President of the Macau General Association of Real Estate, says that residents would rather wait until specific measures are implemented after the Chinese New Year. The number of transactions, therefore, is falling rather than rising. He estimates that after new policies are in place, the property market could bounce back around June, with medium-priced properties rallying. At present, however, while some high-end properties have fallen in price by 50%, they are subject to further decline because of the lack of positive news. It is believed that high-end property prices will rebound if the influence of the financial turmoil dissipates by the second half of 2009, when he believes the overall economy will pick up.
Macao’s property market may conclude by the end of next year
The adjustment of Macao’s property market may conclude by the end of next year, believes Cheong Iat Fai, CEO of Midland Macau; as Macao is relatively nimble in size its property market is likely to recover faster than that of Hong Kong, Singapore, and other places. He believes that the current adjustment will end as early as the end of next year and that there is not much room for further price cuts because of the previous slump. The property market will neither rise nor fall before the negative news disappears. Investors will not enter the market until there are signs of it picking up. The recent signing of eight agreements at the 2008 Guangdong-Macao Joint Co-operation Conference - in which Guangdong and Macao agreed to co-operate in the building of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the development of Hengqin Island - will have a positive effect on Macao’s property market, he says; however, it is not yet time to boost the market by publicising these factors, which can be made use of at a later date. He is optimistic about Macao’s economy, and believes that investors will return to Macao’s property market when positive figures gradually emerge and as investors begin to recognise value in investing in the local property market.