In early 2008, two plots of residential land in Fai Chi Kei were purchased by the New Tenhon Investment Ltd. for a price that was nearly 10 times more than the bottom-line asking price. The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge project was approved for its go-ahead while several property tax favours were announced by the government. Meanwhile, interest rates were further cut and inflation continued to rise. In this setting, investors were attracted to Macau’s property market purchasing properties in the hope of retaining their asset value. With those favourable factors and the boom of the gaming industry, many are bullish about Macau’s property market and predicted a rise of 15% in the housing price. However, Q1 of 2008 did not see the expected buoyant business, only about 4,000 transactions registering, a 30% drop from the figures recorded last year. Even so,(1) property prices kept rising while transactions decreased. Why? (2) Where is Macau’s property market heading in the next two quarters? Will high-end property sales still take the lead? (3)On what basis should we choose property for a short-term or a long-term investment?
(1) property prices kept rising while transactions decreased. Why?
Rico Kwok, Executive Director of Centaline (Macau)
Property Prices Rise by 20%, Shoring up Sales Volume
“The sub-prime mortgage crisis in the U.S. has affected Macau’s property market during the first two quarters of 2008. Homebuyers and investors began to take a wait-and-see stance. As luck would have it, no new properties were available to the market during Q1, and the micro-economic measures were stepped up in the Mainland while natural disasters struck one after another. This resulted in a sharp decline in property sales in May in which only 2,200 property transactions were registered. This was a drop of 40% when compared to the 3,900 of the same period in 2007. However, in spite of the decreasing number of transactions, investors are still optimistic about the property market, since property prices and rental rose by nearly 20%. Take those 800-square-foot flats with two bedrooms in Nova Taipa Garden. They are rather sought after because of their high ratio of usable partitions and potential returns on investment, so the average price rose from $2,300 and $2,400 per square feet last year to $2,800 last May, an increase of nearly 20%. A second-hand flat with two bedrooms in Taipa currently rents from between $ 6,500 to $ 6,800. This is an increase of 18% or nearly 20% over the $5,500 of last year. Rental returns are as high as 0.4% to 0.45%.”
Dennis Wong, Executive Director of Ricacorp (Macau) Properties
Large-scale property projects give spur to property price-hike
The Statistics and Census Service started to extend its statistics scope to include “properties in transfer” (namely transactions for which the 0.5% property transfer stamp duty has been paid) in Q1 of 2008. This means that the 0.5% property transfer stamp duty properties were transferred at high prices which may explain why the property prices in general still rose during Q1. Transfer stamp duties must be paid within three months of the down payment. This policy is believed to have hampered the re-transfer of would-be-properties by speculators, resulting in the slight year-on-year drop in property transactions for Q1. While property transactions in Q1 seemed to have slowed down, many new large property projects registered a satisfactory number of transactions, as in the case of the One Central, whose lake-view flats prices have reached in some cases to over MOP8,300 per foot during Q1 2008, much higher than the MOP7,300 to 7,500 per foot recorded during Q4 of last year. New properties and would-be properties were transferred at good prices, which perhaps explain why property prices in general still rose in Q1.
Franco Liu, Director of Savills (Macau) Ltd.
New Properties Lack Buyers - Hence the Drop in Transactions
“The experience of Macau’s property market over the past two years suggests that the market normally has fewer transactions during the first two quarters of the year. For example, the property market remained cool during the first half of 2006. The situation did not improve until a foreign fund purchased two blocks of One Central Residences and the Wynn Macau’s opening in late 2006 along with the complementary launch of other large projects such as The Praia, other blocks of One Central Residences and Le Royal Arc, the market became rather bullish. High-end properties took the lead in the market. However, the transaction volume dropped during Q1 of 2007 compared with the previous quarter due to Ao Man Long’s trial and the suspension of the ‘Investment Residency Scheme’ in April. Except One Grantai, there were no large projects on the market. However, due to the heated global economic environment, the total value of transactions for the entire year of 2007 was more than that for 2006. The situation in 2008 is the same. No new projects went on sale during Q1. As to Q2, there are only a few flats at The Residencia Macau for private sale. The related figures were not representative enough to be an important factor in the data. Lack of new properties for sale has caused the drop in the volume of transactions, while the increase of transaction prices was due to investors’ confidence in the market for the near future. Re-transfer of would-be properties and large flats were transacted at good prices.”
(2) Where is Macau’s property market heading in the next two quarters? Will high-end property sales still take the lead?
Rico Kwok, Executive Director of Centaline (Macau)
Property Prices & Sales Volume Remain Stable
“Beginning this May, a couple of new properties had a soft sale and promotion, which helped dispel the bearish mood in the property market. The Residencia Macau at the Pérola Oriental area took the lead by launching to the public for sale. Since there has been a hunger for first hand properties for a long time, the launch was well received on its first day and registered satisfactory sales, while the transaction prices are going even higher than the previous subscription prices. Similar positive results were registered with another new residence made available for sale during the same period in Macau. It is predicted that property transactions will remain stable during the second half of the year, at a level between 2,000 to 2,500 units. Property prices will roughly remain the same as those registered during the first two quarters. Prices of quality properties will linger between $5,000 and $10,000 per square foot.”
Dennis Wong, Executive Director of Ricacorp (Macau) Properties
Property Market in the Next Two Quarters will See Adjustments
“30% of all transactions in Macau’s property market are speculative, of which 10% are by Hong Kong investors. Events in Hong Kong have an impact upon Macau. For example, the fluctuation in Hong Kong’s stock market in April and the fervent purchase of two super deluxe properties - Palazzo Villa and Celestial Heights - in May drained much of Hong Kongers’ capital causing their purchasing power in Macau to shrink. Apart from that, property prices increased by 30% in 2007 over that of 2006, and are now at an expected level. Therefore, it is estimated that the property market will undergo an adjustment during the next two quarters. It is expected that prices of quality properties will drop by 10% to 15% to stimulate sales. According to past experience, launching new properties in the market will generally push up the overall property prices as well as stimulate other transactions, and favourably impact the second-hand property market. Properties launched in recent years are mostly quality or high-end. Therefore, they will still take the lead in the property market in the next two quarters.”
Franco Liu, Director of Savills (Macau) Ltd.
First-Hand Property Take the Lead While Second-Hand Remains Stable
“Transactions are not as numerous as expected because investors are waiting for the next opportunity. In the latter half of 2008, a number of new properties will be launched for sale. Apart from The Residencia Macau, the announcements that Avenida Wai Long and the Windsor Arch in Taipa will go on sale sometime during Q3 and Q4. This will stimulate the property market. Therefore, new properties are expected to grab the attention of investors. Although the market cooled down in Q1 and Q2, it is possible that the total transaction volume in 2008 will be more or less the same as that for 2007 since many valuable properties will go on sale before Christmas. Large infrastructures play an important role in heating the property market. In 2008, high-end residences lead the market, while first-hand properties sell better than others the second-hand market remains stable.”
(3)On what basis should we choose property for a short-term or a long-term investment?
Rico Kwok, Executive Director of Centaline (Macau)
Medium Priced Properties May Be Good for Short Term Gain
“Macau’s economy will see various large projects completed over the next two years. Along with these, a large number of foreign workers will come to Macau many of whom will be managers, which will seek quality residences. By then properties of $2 to $3 million will be much sought after. Now that much of the medium priced properties have been bought, but because of the outside market situation, investors who over-bought those properties are anxious to cash out. If those relatively new second-hand properties are bought now, such as Nova City, La Cite or The Praia, etc., at prices 10% lower than the market, chances are that buyers will gain a profit in the short term, while prices of such properties are much less likely to fall below the average price of residential properties.”
Dennis Wong, Executive Director of Ricacorp (Macau) Properties
Second-Hand Properties are Suitable for Long-term Investment
“Influenced by the depreciating U.S. dollar to which Macau’s currency is indirectly pegged, and the rising value of the RMB, Macau has seen a continuous rise in inflation, which in January was at 5.94%, a record high since Macau’s handover in 1999. Furthermore, it is expected to rise to 10% by the end of 2008. On the other hand, interest on bank deposits is close to zero. Since a return on investment is the key for long-term investors and that is precisely what second-hand properties offer investors, since such properties can earn rentals once leased. Currently, the rental of a 1,000 ft² flat of MOP2 million is between MOP 6,000 and MOP 7,000 per month. In view of the prospects that a large number of foreign workers will come to Macau over the next two years, residential rentals are expected to rise by 20%.”
Franco Liu, Director of Savills (Macau) Ltd.
New Quality Properties Still Have Investment Potential
“If other new housing projects can be made available to the market during the fourth quarter, the property price of Windsor Arch in Taipa is likely to reach the highest price that was registered last year. Properties in Nam Van Lake area of the Macau Peninsular will have the potential to be a rather good investment.”