The property market is on a tear, thanks to booming demand and the release of a few new high-end projects
On a February afternoon, more than 50 reporters gathered at a press conference held in the JW Marriott hotel, Hong Kong. They were there not merely for the presence of local pop TV star Bernice Liu, but to witness the launch of The Buckingham, Macau’s supposed “first six-star residential property”. As the first residential project to be unveiled this year, the Buckingham is expected to take Macau’s property market up another level.
And by this, we mean not just the quality of the furnishings. Prices for luxury properties are, pardon the pun, going through the roof in Macau right now. Stories circulate constantly of entire floors being released into the secondary market at projects such as One Central and One Grantai at twice what was paid for them by early-bird investors who jumped in less than a year ago. Even at the Buckingham, prices are nearly 50 percent higher than what buyers at the next-door Manhattan paid fewer than six months ago.
That said, quality may well turn out to be the defining factor at the top end of the market. The Buckingham, though not yet finished, promises to be a classy place to live. The 50-storey residential tower is located close to the Cotai Strip, containing a total of 184 units with sizes ranging from 1,000 sq ft to 2,288 sq ft, and nine duplexes of more than 3,000 square feet. It has a two-storey clubhouse facility, Royal Clubland, that includes a yoga studio, spa, swimming pool, gymnasium, reading corner, children’s outdoor playground, wine and cigar bar, and more.
According to Pun Wai Man, chairman of Wai Heng Construction (developer of The Buckingham), prior to its launch the project received more than 100 sales inquiries from multiple parties showing intense interest. It helped, of course, that on February 19, The Buckingham struck an institutional deal with Marriott Vacation Club International which has agreed to purchase five consecutive floors comprising 30 units of the property. Pun declined to reveal the amount paid by Marriott but said that he expects the average price of The Buckingham will climb well above MOP6,000 per square foot.
The Buckingham is certainly following in illustrious footsteps. One Central, the project run by Hongkong Land and Pansy Ho, situated “in the center of it all” (as its TV ad stated) is probably still top of the pile in Macau, fetching prices in the secondary market of more than HK$8,000 per square foot. One Grantai, located on a hill overlooking Cotai, is fetching more than HK$7,000 per square foot.
What else could be driving prices, besides the chandeliers painted into the brochures these projects hand out, some of which show backdrops of Las Vegas? Well, it certainly helps that there has been a freeze on construction permits for new projects ever since Ao Man Long, the former secretary for development, was taken down by graft-busters two years ago. Already, the market has seen a casualty in the shape of xxx, which pulled out of its project in Nam Wan Lake area just as this magazine was going to press. That may be bad news for government officials responsible for foreign investment, but it’s music to the ears of property developers, as future growth in supply will be pushed that much further out.
The continued suspension of the government’s Fixed-asset Investment Residency Policy, which had previously allowed a wave of mainlanders to obtain residency in Macau through property purchases, hasn’t hurt, either. So 2008 looks to be a buoyant year – for those lucky enough to get their hands on a new unit, most of which sell out within weeks of going on sale.
“The property market in Macau will remain buoyant this year,” says Rico Kwok, managing director of Centaline (Macau). “Thanks to the three new large-scale projects – The Residencia Macau, the Avenida Wai Long Project and the Windsor Arch – that are going to be launched before mid-2008, an additional 1,000 new residential units will be added to the market.”
Looking at the bigger picture, the optimism remains for projections going further out. Research conducted by Jones Lang LaSalle indicates that an estimated 19,256 residential units will be coming onto the market between 2008 and 2010, averaging 6,419 new units per year. More than 70 percent are for the mass residential market; the luxury residential market only accounts for 30 percent.
On the demand side, there is reason for optimism, too. As Rico Kwok says, there is real money in the market. “Currently, the per capita GDP in Macau has already exceeded Hong Kong; the unemployment rate is close to zero. If you have a stable job and don’t have to worry about being laid off, you’ll naturally consider buying property or upgrading your current residence. These factors will keep the property market strong.”
Centaline (Macau), for example, recorded more than 32,000 transactions in 2007, two-thirds of which were for residential properties. The agency’s commission revenue has doubled in the past three years, reaching a total of MOP88 million last year.
Dan Tagliere, co-founder of MacauLand, agrees that although Macau’s property market has not fully matured – the software is yet to catch up with the hardware – prices will continue to surge. “The gaming and hotel industries alone will create 93,000 new jobs over the next three years, including a large percentage of mid-income to high-income foreign management staff. These expatriates are accustomed to certain living standards and many existing residential units are not good enough to meet their requirements. That’s why developers here are all competing to feed the market with more high-end properties.”
He should know better than anyone where the demand is coming from, because his first project, The Manhattan, is already open, and pulling in the cream of the crop of new managers coming in for projects such as Cirque du Soleil and the Four Seasons, both of which open mid-year. The Manhattan has a great clubhouse, complete with a gym, pool, golf driving simulator, kids’ playroom and its own small cinema, and rents are, unsurprisingly, rising strongly, too.
According to Tagliere, the owners of Manhattan’s 175 units come from all over the world, including institutional investors and individuals. Ten to 15 percent of the units are owner-occupied, while others are in the leasing market. Currently, more than 75 percent of all Manhattan’s units have been leased and Tagliere believes that the rest will find tenants by the end of 2008. “Many wonder who is going to occupy all these high-end residences, but the thing is you have to build forward and then give it six or eight months before they are absorbed by the market. The problem now is not that we are building too many but that there aren’t enough being built.”
The market is not without risks, however. There is always uncertainty around the definition of “luxury”, for instance. “Many developers tend to apply the word ‘luxury’ to all of their projects while the property is only medium-end at best,” says Franco Liu, head of Savills’ Macau office.
Investors should also be reminded that when it comes to buying properties, both hardware and software matter. For example, who will be managing the property? Currently, Macau’s luxury property management market is largely divided between the two international giants, Jones Lang LaSalle and Savills. The former is managing Lot W, a high-end serviced apartment in Taipa, while the latter operates The Manhattan. Liu says that the property market remains strong and this year the price per square foot of a so-called “luxury property” should reach MOP7,000 per square foot – still cheaper compared to the high-end residential market in Hong Kong.
The strong growth of the gaming industry is driving a buoyant property market, and it is no surprise that plenty of foreign investors are optimistic about the future of Macau. Recently, Engel & Voelkers (E&V), Germany’s leading real estate agency, has also made plans to enter the Macau market. “In Europe, especially in the finance and banking sectors, many are keen to enter this nova market, yet few can find the breakthrough point. They would like to have a property agent whom they can trust, and that’s exactly why we are here,” says Sandra Roth, director of business development, E&V Asia-pacific.
With 30 years of international marketing experience, E&V’s expertise is in the leasing business of high-end residential properties. E&V entered the Hong Kong market at the end of 2006 by seeking local firms to buy its licenses or franchise to establish outlets in upmarket locations. And now, the aggressive agency has its eyes set on the neighboring market – two new branches are scheduled to open in Macau within 2008. A one-off licensing fee of £27,500 is required in order to become E&V’s partner and benefit from its global market mega database, clientele network, sales, PR and staff support, along with access to E&V’s IT platform.
“Unlike Hong Kong, Macau’s property has not yet reached its maturity, which allows more room for further development. We want to take the opportunity and stay ahead of the competition, offering our local clients a new level of services with an international flair,” says Roth.
While a feel-good atmosphere is dominating Macau’s property market, David Faulkner, the regional director of Valuation & Advisory – Asia, Colliers International maintains his reservations. “The upward trend in the property market largely depends on foreign investment, and a lot of it is based on speculation. Looking at these newly-launched luxury properties, one can’t help but ask: who will be living there? It’s difficult to tell how many new units the market can absorb.”
Faulkner does not agree with the common Macau-Las Vegas analogy either, for Macau has several congenital deficiencies that can hardly be overlooked. “Macau has its physical limitation and a small local population. Unlike Las Vegas, it can’t be expanded into the desert. The local economic system is gaming-dominated, which is unlikely to change (though its percentage might change slightly). Some say that the gaming and hotel industries create enormous job opportunities – but don’t forget that most of the imported labor force will be low-income workers. How many of them will be categorized as high-income? And moreover, most visitors are here to gamble, which makes you wonder how many of them would be willing to have a weekend home here?”
Faulkner believes that the property market in Macau has almost reached its demand-supply balance and the growth of luxurious residential units is limited. “When all these projects are completed there is going to be competition and our opinion is that in certain segments of the market there is going to be overdevelopment. As an investor you want to be sitting on assets that you know will shift.”
Nine to five
The commercial property market in Macau is much smaller than the residential. Grade A office buildings are clustered in the CBD around the Lisboa, namely Macau Bank of China, AIA Tower, Macau Square and the Finance & IT (FIT) Center, which has recently begun accepting applications for lease. The lower grade commercial buildings are mostly located in the Dynasty District.
Gregory Ku, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle (Macau) says that aside from the FIT Center, there is no new commercial property project joining the lineup in the foreseeable future. Some suggest that the New Yaohan and Jai Alai Complex will be reconstructed with the addition of office space, but a detailed development plan has not been confirmed.
At present, though the occupancy rate of Grade A office buildings is more than 90 percent, Macau still has a total vacant commercial property space of more than 1.7 million square feet. The main reason for this is that the casino groups house most of their staff in on-site offices. However, with the development of service sectors such as banking, finance, accounting, law, telecommunications and information technology, more companies in the support industries for the casinos are setting up branches in Macau. Unsurprisingly, rents are already rising strongly at the top end of the market.
Ku stresses that Grade A office buildings in Macau are yet to catch up with similar properties in Hong Kong in terms of facilities. The new FIT Center boasts a 12,000-square-foot luxury clubhouse, spa and massage service, gymnasium, café, and multi-function room, and will be clearly the No.1 commercial property in Macau. The average leasing price is estimated at over HK$22 per square foot.
Ku believes that most companies servicing the Macau casino groups still choose to base their headquarters in Hong Kong, and due to the proximity and convenient transportation between Hong Kong and Macau, even if companies do set up branches in Macau, they won’t necessarily be looking for anything plush.
Tips and traps
Gregory Ku, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle Macau, says aspiring property investors should first consider their budget and then the location. Taipa is regarded as the most promising area for real estate investment, with newly developed residential projects including Nova City, The Manhattan and The Buckingham (all with club house facilities). On the peninsula, Pearl District is a fairly good choice.
Yet according to Ku, investors should be reminded that Macau adopts the Continental Law system, making it different from the Common Law system in Hong Kong. The buyer-seller contract is relatively simple, and the local government has not imposed any regulation on the sale of off-plan property, so investors need to be extra cautious.
In addition to the property transaction price, the buyer needs to pay an extra two percent in attorney fees, 3.5 percent of government stamp-tax, and the transaction commission to the real estate agency. Moreover, buyers must pay a 16.8 percent property tax to the government if they wish to put the unit on the leasing market.
In an attempt to encourage further development of the property market, the government plans to offer local residents a 90 percent mortgage. And if the capital value of the property purchased is more than MOP3 million, the stamp-tax will be exempted.